Our in-house stats specialist shares his picks for the week ahead.
Denver Broncos (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (3-3) (-3, 41.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
(My record on TNF Games: 1-0 +1 unit)
Game Preview –
The Broncos will be flying into Cleveland to take on the Browns Thursday night at FirstEnergy Stadium! Both teams will be trying to snap their current losing streak – Denver has lost three games and Cleveland has lost two.
The Broncos will need another performance like last week from Teddy Bridgewater except without all the turnovers! Bridgewater threw for 334 and three touchdowns last week against the Las Vegas Raiders but turned the ball over four times. They will be looking for a road win to avoid a 4th straight loss after starting the year 3-0.
The Browns are in trouble health wise. Guess who missed practice on Monday for them – Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Jack Conklin, A.J. Green, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Malcolm Smith, JC Tretter, and Jedrick Wills! We know for sure that Hunt and Chubb are out, and D’Ernest Johnson is expected to get the start at running back. If Mayfield is unable to go, Case Keenum will get the start against his old team.
How the Pros are betting this game –
- Pros are all over the Broncos at +3
- The line opened this week at 3.5 but was quickly moved to 3 based on the action
- 51% of the bets are on Denver, with 87% of the money on them
- Pros were on the under early – they moved the line from 44 to 41.5 quickly
- Big money is now on the Over as pros are trying to hedge their early bet of the under
How I am betting this game –
I am a strong believer in solid pass rushing and good QBs win football games! Broncos D have forced the 3rd most sacks in the NFL and the Browns O-Line have allowed the 4th most. When you pair that with a banged-up Baker Mayfield (who I already think is not a good NFL QB) I am ALL over the Broncos on a short week! Give me 1.5 units on the Broncos +3.