Our in-house stats specialist shares his picks for the week ahead.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5 o/u: 42.5)
1:00 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Steelers +3.5
Under 42.5
How I am betting this game –
Ask anyone, I HATE Baker Mayfield! I think he is the most overrated QB since Johnny Manziel. With that being said, I am all over the Steelers at +3.5. However, if Case Keenum gets the nod and that moves the line a point to Browns -2.5 (like it did last week when Baker was ruled out), I will be all over that. Put 1 unit on the Steelers now at +3.5, but if Baker is ruled out and the line shifts, grab the Browns at -2.5 and hope the game ends on a last second FG by the Browns.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-13.5 o/u: 49.5)
1:00 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Dolphins +13.5
Under 49.5
How I am betting this game –
Here’s a short and sweet answer – it’s a divisional matchup and the Bills must win by two touchdowns?? Yes, please, and thank you. Give me a unit on the Dolphins all day.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3 o/u:46)
1:00 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
Falcons -3
Stay Away
How I am betting this game –
These are my favorite games to bet! The Falcons are coming off two straight wins while the Panthers have lost 4 in a row. The public will be all over the “hot” Falcons, while we will be winning 1.5 units on the Panthers.
Cincinnati Bengals (-10 o/u: 43.5) @ New York Jets
1:00 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Jets +10
Under 43.5
How I am betting this game –
New York Jets are BAD, and the Cincinnati Bengals are GOOD. So, this is an easy one, bet Bengals, right? WRONG!! This is one of those moments that don’t happen a lot – historically, a home team getting 10 points has covered at an unreal clip of 69.2% of the time! Proceed cautiously if you want, but I will be betting 1 unit on the Jets.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-3 o/u:51)
1:00 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Colts -3
Over 51
How I am betting this game –
This is not a common thing for me to say, but sometimes you must ride the HOT hand. The Titans have played insane lately and this seems like a no brainer let down spot for them. I will be going against my gut and will put 1 unit on the Titans at +3.
San Franciso 49ers (-4 o/u: 39.5) @ Chicago Bears
1:00 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
49ers -4
Under 39.5
How I am betting this game –
Normally, a home team getting 4 points is all I need to know, but I like the value in this line more than usual. Between Aaron Rodgers flexing on them and a beat down by The Tom Brady, the Bears have been nationally embarrassed over the last two week. This makes me think the public will be on the 9ers which makes me on the Bears! Give me 1.5 units on the Bears +4.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5 o/u: 48) @ Detriot Lions
1:00 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
Eagles -3.5
Over 48
How I am betting this game –
This is a good time of year to make some money on the 0-7 team! The public has this irrational thought that since the Lions are 0-7 they are going to “player harder” than their opponents because they “need the win more”. That is just crazy. We are going against the public and betting 1 unit on the Eagles -3.5.
LA Rams (-15.5 o/u: 46.5) @ Houston Texans
1:00 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
Texans +15.5
Over 46.5
How I am betting this game –
Here’s a short and sweet answer – home team getting more than 2 touchdowns??? Yes, please, and thank you. Bet 1/2 unit on the Texans +15.5.
New England Patriots @ (-4 o/u: 49.5) Los Angelos Chargers
4:05 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Patriots +4
Over 49.5
How I am betting this game –
The Patriots are coming off a 54-13 win and the Chargers just got blown out 34-6 against Baltimore. That makes this a classic zig and zag game! The public’s short-term memory thinks the Pats are turning it on and the Chargers are cooling off! However, betting history shows that a team covers the following week less than 45% of the time after a blowout win and 54% of the time after a blowout loss! Bet 1 unit on the Chargers -4.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ (-3.5 o/u: 44.5) Seattle Seahawks
4:05 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Jaguars +3.5
Over 44.5
How I am betting this game –
When I first saw these teams were playing, I estimated the line to be around Seahawks -6.5, so as soon as I saw it opened it at Seahawks -3.5 I was ALL over it. This game has 17-13 feel to it. Give me 1 unit on the Seattle -3.5.
Tampa Bay Bucs (-4.5 o/u: 49) @ New Orleans Saints
4:25 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
Saints +4.5
Under 49
How I am betting this game –
I have another short and sweet answer for you – a home team, in a divisional game, getting points?? Yes, please, and thank you. Bet 1 unit on Saints +4.5.
Washington Football Team @ Denver Broncos (-3 o/u:45)
4:25 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
Football Team +3
Over 45
How I am betting this game –
What an AWFUL game this is! Both teams are on losing streaks and neither look good. This is my stay away game of the week. If you are a true degenerate and need to bet on this game, take the Football Team getting 3.5. They have played some tough teams and might look like a football team (word play) against a bad Denver team.