What does our residential expert think on this weeks ‘Grinding It Out!’?
Welcome back everyone to Grinding It Out! We had a rough Week 9. We went 5-5 but the games we bet big on lost and the games we bet small on won. We finished -5.25 units on the week. Let’s bounce back strong this week! For those of you who are new here…
Some gifted humans can look at a line and based on injuries, off-field issues, weather, past performances, coaching styles, and any other human factor you can think of and use that to find flaws in a line and succeed in sports betting. I have no problem telling you I DO NOT do that, and I have succeeded over the years by factoring in only one thing – the public’s perception on a line. Below are my Week 10 picks. I have broken them down to better help you understand how I find value in a line based solely on the public’s perception.
Tampa Bay Bucs (-9.5, 51.5) @ Washington Football Team
1:00 PM ET, FOX
How the Pros are betting this game –
Football Team +9.5
No Value in OU
How I am betting this game –
I take a home team getting more than a TD about 80% of the time, however, this is one of those rare cases that I do not. A proven trend in NFL betting is to take a road team after a BYE. As we all know, home field advantage is a three-point swing in the line. It accounts for the fans, but more so that the other team must travel, are away from their families, not sleeping in their own beds, etc. So, the theory behind taking a road team coming off a BYE is that the line should not be affected by three points since the road team has been at home for the last two weeks. You may think I am joking, but I am not. So, long story short – give me 1.5 units on the Bucs -9.5.
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 42.5)
1:00 PM ET, CBS
How the Pros are betting this game –
Lions +8.5
Over 42.5
How I am betting this game –
Look! A road team coming off a BYE – please give me one unit on the Lions +8.5.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-2.5, 45)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Browns +2.5
Over 45
How I am betting this game –
There’s a lot of public hype that the Browns are a better football team without OBJ. They are also coming off a big win in Cincinnati, so the public is back on them hard. When the public zigs, we zag, and will put one unit on the Pats at home giving 2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47.5)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Colts -10.5
Over 47.5
How I am betting this game –
The Jags are getting 10.5 points in a divisional game?! Yes, please, and thank you! One unit on the Jags +10.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 55)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Falcons +9.5
Under 55
How I am betting this game –
Great spot for us here! When we factor in the Cowboys coming off a loss to the Broncos and the Falcons upsetting the Saints on the road we will be all over the home team. 1.5 units on the Cowboys -9.5 please.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans (-3, 44.5)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Saints +3
Under 44.5
How I am betting this game –
Titans are the hottest team in football and the Saints haven’t won a game in November. The public is all over the Titans, so we will be winning 1.5 units on the Saints +3.
Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 48) @ New York Jets
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Jets +12.5
Over 48
How I am betting this game –
The Jets are getting 12.5 points in a divisional game?! Yes, please, and thank you! 1/2 unit on the Jets +12.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 53)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Vikings +3.5
Over 53
How I am betting this game –
Vikings just blew a 24-10 lead and the Chargers just won a road game in Philly. The public is on the Chargers and have moved the line from 3 to 3.5. That ½ point from 3 to 3.5 and 7 to 7.5 makes all the difference over time, so when we get an opportunity to take it we need to. Let’s put ½ unit on the Vikings at +3.5.
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-10.5, 44.5)
4:05 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Panthers +10.5
Under 44.5
How I am betting this game –
Cam Newton just resigned with his old team and the public is hyped about it. It’s been almost six years since Cam took the Panthers to Superbowl, but the public seems to think it was yesterday. This is a no-brainer pick for us! Let’s bet one unit on the 8-1 Cardinals at -10.5 at home.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos (-3, 45.5)
4:25 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Eagles +3
Under 45.5
How I am betting this game –
If you have read this article the last couple of weeks you should already know who we are taking in this one. The Broncos embarrassing the Cowboys in Dallas is still fresh in the publics brain, so we need to fade the Broncos here and take the Eagles at +3. Let’s put one unit on it.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49)
4:25 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Seahawks +3.5
Under 49
How I am betting this game –
This is my stay away game of the week. There is just too much up in the air at this point. Will Rodgers or Love play? Is Russell Wilson 100%? Who is playing RB for Seattle? Too many questions with not enough answers. Avoid it!
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 52) @ Las Vegas Raiders
8:20 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Raiders +2.5
Over 52
How I am betting this game –
KC isn’t good and the public refuses to believe this. I don’t blame them honestly, its hard to give up a team that went to two straight Super Bowls. Vegas is well aware of this love and the publics inability to give up on them. This line is wrong. Raiders should be favored in this game! This is my lock of the week, so I am going to do something I don’t do too much! I am betting two units on the Raiders +2.5.