What does our residential expert think on this weeks ‘Grinding It Out!’?
Welcome back everyone to Grinding It Out! We are coming off a strong week 10! We went 7-4 (+2 units). Let’s keep it going this week! For those of you who are new here…
Some gifted humans can look at a line and based on injuries, off-field issues, weather, past performances, coaching styles, and any other human factor you can think of and use that to find flaws in a line and succeed in sports betting. I have no problem telling you I DO NOT do that, and I have succeeded over the years by factoring in only one thing – the public’s perception on a line. Below are my Week 11 picks. I have broken them down to better help you understand how I find value in a line based solely on the public’s perception.
Baltimore Ravens (-5, 45) @ Chicago Bears
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Bears
Under
How I am betting this game –
Even with a bad lose to the Dolphins in Week 10, the public still has faith in Ravens and are betting big on them. We will fade the Ravens and take the home team getting 5. Give me one unit on the Bears.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-10, 44.5)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Texans
Under
How I am betting this game –
Look! A road team coming off a BYE – please give me one unit on the Texans +10
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2, 43)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Eagles
Under
How I am betting this game –
Saints have lost two in a row and the Eagles just had a nice road win in Denver. However, the public still backs the Saints. As always, we need to fade the public and take the home team giving less than a FG. I will bet ½ unit on the Eagles.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 44.5) @ New York Jets
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Jets
Over
How I am betting this game –
The Jets got smoked at home in Week 10 and Dolphins upset the Ravens – Public is of course all over the Dolphins, so we will be hammering the home team, getting points, in a divisional game! One unit on the Jets +3.5.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7, 50.5)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Colts
Under
How I am betting this game –
The Colts have won 4 of their last 5 while the public is quick to point out that Bills have struggled against good opponents. With the public all over the Colts we will be all over the Bills giving 7. Give me one unit on the Bills -7.
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-11, 43.5)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Browns
Under
How I am betting this game –
The Browns got embarrassed in Week 10 and the Lions forced a tie against the Steelers. This means the public is high on the Lions and low on the Browns. I hate to do it, but give me ½ unit on the Browns -11
Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 48) @ Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Vikings
Under
How I am betting this game –
Home team getting points in a divisional matchup?! Yes, please, and thank you! One unit on the Vikings +1.5
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers (-3, 43)
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Panthers
Under
How I am betting this game –
The Panthers cost us money last week after a road win in Arizona. The public is going to be on the Panthers again, which normally means we would be on the Washington Football team. However, I believe that the impact of CMC isn’t being captured in this line yet. He is the best offensive player in the NFL and we need to capitalize on Vegas not factoring him correctly yet. Give me one unit on CMC and the Panthers -3 at home
San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Jaguars
Over
5
How I am betting this game –
A home team getting a touchdown against a team that just played incredible on Monday Night Football?! Yes, please, and thank you! One unit on the Jags +7.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 50.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
4:00 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Raiders
Under
How I am betting this game –
This is a tough spot for us. The Raiders are coming off a home loss on national TV and the Bengals are a road team coming off a BYE! Because both scenarios have won me lots of money over the years I am going to stay away from this game because I’m not sure which scenario I like more!
Arizona Cardinals (-2, 48.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
4:25 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Seahawks
Under
How I am betting this game –
WE LIVE FOR THESE MOMENTS! The Cardinals lost to a mediocre Panthers team last week and the public is patting themselves on the back for “knowing that the Cardinals weren’t a legit team!”. We will be all over the Cardinals assuming Kyler Murray plays. We will wait this out until game time but bet one unit on the Cardinals once we know Murray is starting under center! If he doesn’t play, stay away!
Dallas Cowboys @ KC Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5)
4:25 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Chiefs
Under
How I am betting this game –
What a scary game this is. Both the Cowboys and Chiefs looked great last week, but America’s Team is getting more love. The public is looking at the Cowboys Week 9 loss as a fluke loss and are viewing the Chiefs Week 10 blowout win as fluke win. We need to ride the Chiefs at home on this one and hope the public is wrong once again. Give me one unit on the Chiefs -2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 47)
8:25 PM ET
How the Pros are betting this game –
Steelers
Over
How I am betting this game –
“The Steelers can’t beat the Lions at home and now you think they can travel across the country and compete against a playoff team?!” I mostly certainly do! The public is all in on the Chargers AND I MEAN ALL IN. Give me one unit on the 5-3-1 Steelers at +5.5! (This is assuming Ben clears COVID protocol and plays. At the time of this writing, it is looking that way. If he does not play STAY AWAY!)