Week 11 Thursday Night Football Picks on ‘Grinding It Out!’

What does our residential expert think on this weeks ‘Grinding It Out!’?

Overall: 3-1 (+1.9 units) 

New England Patriots (-6.5 o/u: 47) @ Atlanta Falcons

Thursday 8:20 P.M ET, FOX 

Game Preview –

The Falcons will host the Patriots under the lights at the Mercedes Benz Stadium on Thursday night. The Patriots look to continue their four-game winning streak while the Falcons are hoping to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Cowboys. Both teams are healthy, and no major players are expected to miss the game. 

The Falcons are having quite the up and down season. They had a big win in Week 9 on the road against the Saints, but then got embarrassed last week in Dallas. Matt Ryan has had a mediocre season at best. Out of the 25 quarterbacks who have thrown more than 250 passes, he ranks 16th in passer rating, 13th in passing touchdowns, 16th in passing yards, and has thrown the 4th most interceptions. The Falcons will need rookie tight end Kyle Pitts and the surprising Cordarrelle Patterson to continue their great seasons. 

The Patriots will be coming into “Hotlanta” on a hot streak. The Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Mac Jones is coming into his own. His Passer Rating during the win streak is an impressive 102.5. He has thrown for six touchdowns and only one INT over the last four games. Even more impressive than Jones is the Pats defense. They have only allowed 12.5 points per game during the win streak. 

How the Pros are betting this game –

  • The Pros are on the Falcons at +6.5 
  • 73% of the bets are on the Pats, but only 63% of the money is on them
  • Pros are on the Under of 47

How I am betting this game –

This is a great spot for us! The public perception of the Pats is at a season high and public perception of the Falcons is at a season low. Not only that, but this line screams New England. As we always do, we need to fade the public and grab the Falcons here. The less confident in a pick in you are the better! We picked the Dolphins last week and weren’t confident and they won outright. Let’s hope to continue this trend and bet one unit on the Falcons -6.5!

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