Breaking Down The Master Odds: Is It “Un-American” to Not Bet on Tiger?

My love of sports started at the heart of the steroid era in baseball, in between Jordan and Lebron, before the NFL became a well-run business, and when the WWE was still the WWF. This means two things; I am old, and my admiration of Eldrick “Tiger” Woods is strong. Tiger started his domination when I was 11 years old, and it continued through my teenage years, and more. I could just list all his career accomplishments and that would be more than enough to explain why I love Tiger (82 career wins, 15 Majors, highest career earnings), but the truth is, what Tiger has added to my life is much more than that.

My dad isn’t into sports like me, he never really had the time. His dad passed away when he was 19, so he had more important things to do than watch sports. However, when I was growing up, if Tiger was in the hunt on Sundays, my dad was ALL in. If he was cutting the grass or doing any of the hundreds of things on his list, he would come in every 15 minutes and ask for an update (yes, I am old, there were no smart phones back then, so he couldn’t check himself). Once Tiger was on the 16th, he’d stop what he was doing no matter what, and for the next 45 minutes he and I would cheer on Tiger. It was the best! Not only because Tiger usually won, but because I got to watch it with my dad.

But that’s what Tiger does. He makes everyone stop what they are doing and just watch. He is rare. No one should be bigger than the sport they compete in, but Tiger is. Golf would exist today without Tiger, but it thrives today because of him. He is already on Mount Rushmore, next to Ali, Babe, and Jordan, but when it’s all said and done, he’ll be the number one sports figure of all time.

I am the biggest Tiger fan and strongly believe it is “Un-American” to not like him. But we are here to make money, not cheer on our heroes. So, heck no! It is not “Un-American” to fade Tiger. In fact, it’s smart to. The odds are just awful. Tiger went from +8000 to +4000 because of one press conference. That is laughable. So, stay away from the urge to bet on Tiger this weekend, but, if he’s in the mix on Sunday, sit back and enjoy it. I know my dad and I will!

Before moving on to my best bets for this weekend, I leave you with the greatest moment in golf history:

Like most things I do when it comes to sports betting, I don’t try to outsmart the books with my sports knowledge, but rather with simple math. I find value in lines and this has allowed me to consistently make money betting sports. It’s like compounding interest, at first it’s very little money, but over time, winning ½ unit per day adds up! So, below are some bets I am making based on math and not insight into the game of golf.

1/2 unit on Justin Thomas to win, 1/2 unit to finish Top 5, and 1 unit to finish 10

He is my favorite to win this weekend, so I will be betting a total of two units on him. If JT finishes in the top 10 we will come out +0.3 units. Top 5 would make us +2.3 units. If he wins, we celebrate our 8.8 unit profit!

1/5 units on all golfers currently at +2000 (to win) to finish in Top 5.

If either Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Rory Mcllroy, or Collin Morikawa finishes in the Top 5 we will be even. If two of them finish in the top 5 we will be +1 unit. I like that bell curve A LOT.  

1/2 unit on Hideki Matsuyama to Finish Top 10

This is simple, the odds don’t add up, so we need to take advantage of it. Why are Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris both +3500 to win and +600 to finish top 5, but Matsuyama is +350 to finish top 10, and Zalatoris is only +250? That seems like a free +100 value which is too good to pass up on.

1 Unit on Brooks Koepka to Finish Top 10

Brooks has the same odds as to Viktor Hovland to finish in the top 10 this weekend. What does Brooks have that Viktor doesn’t? Pretty much everything – a proven track record in all Majors, succeeded in bad weather, and solid showings at Augusta. Not sure why these odds are 2 to 1, but I know I will be taking them.

½ Unit on Scottie Scheffler Top 5 and 1 unit on Top 10  

If Scottie finishes in top 10, we break even, if he finishes in top 5, we are up 1.5 units. That is another bell curve I like.

Good luck to everyone, bet within your limits, and have fun!

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