Our in-house baseball expert Billy J (-1.05 Units) breaks down his best bets for tonight action!
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
This line reeks and is absolutely baiting you to take the easy pick here in the Cubs. Why so easy you ask? Well the simple test is looking and seeing that the Cubs are trotting out their reliever turned starter Keegan Thompson who is 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA. He’s won his last 4 starts and has increased his innings as well as he ramps up to be a long-term starter like how Garrett Whitlock is for the Boston Red Sox. This matchup looks amazing on paper and facing the last place AL East Orioles at -110 seems too good to be true.
On the flipside you have Kyle Bradish going for the Orioles. His 6.82 ERA sticks out like a sore thumb. In no start this year has Bradish not given up at least 2 earned runs. He’s given up 17 earned runs in his last 4 starts alone. Take away his one brilliant start against the Cardinals on May 10th and you are looking at an ERA almost near 8 runs a start.
With both teams having similar records and a red-hot starter in Thompson going against a struggling Bradish, doesn’t it seem strange that the money movement hasn’t completely tilted in the Cubs favor? One would think this should be trending near -130 at the original opening line, but it has not.
Although Thompson has ramped up to compile more innings each start, the expectation this season is for the Cubs bullpen to lock it down in each of starts. It’s been a successful diet thus far, but how sustainable can it be for an entire season? Something has to give and when it seems this obvious and many public betters already hammering the Cubs line during their day off yesterday, we will go with the contrarian play here with the home team Orioles.
The pick: Orioles -105 currently on BetMGM
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres
The Mets and Padres continue game 2 of their 3-game series in Petco Park. The Mets took the opener of the series as it came with tons of excitement. With 11 runs scored and a cycle by Eduardo Escobar, the Mets are on a roll in Southern California scoring 27 runs in their 3-game current winning streak.
On tap for game 2 is a potential pitchers duel with Yu Darvish taking on Taijuan Walker. Opening line has been set at 7.5 runs and understandably so. Darvish is slightly over the dreaded 4.00 ERA mark and at a 1.09 WHIP, but has fared much better at home with a 2-1 record and 1.71 ERA. His last home start was a tough loss in a quality start against the Brewers, but still racked up 7 K’s in the losing effort. Like the Brewers, he gets a stingy Mets lineup who has been hitting better as of late after being non-existent the first two games of the prior Dodgers series.
On the other end of the bump we have Walker who is coming off his first losing campaign of the year against the Dodgers. Prior to that he had 3 wins in his last 4 starts and only surrendered 5 total earned runs. Walker is no stranger to Petco Park as he is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career and to note as well, Walker owns a career ERA of 1.97 against the Padres in 6 total starts. Walker has been grinding out some games this year and when his ground ball to fly out ratio favors using his infielders, he is almost unstoppable.
I expect this one to be around 7 runs with both starters going deep into the game and relying on their top bullpen arms to keep it close or close it out.
The Pick: Under 7.5. -105 currently on DraftKings
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