Billy J’s Thursday MLB Pick
YTD +0.5 Units
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
The Pick: Under 7 +105 currently on DraftKings – 1 unit play
Just like the other day when I found it interesting that the Orioles and Blue Jays haven’t squared off this year until early June, here we are now with the Angels and Mariners facing off for the first time in 2022. Talk about two different teams and the ride it took to get here. For starters, at one point the Angels were the talk of baseball when they were leading the AL West early and were 24-13 on May 15th. In just one month the Angels have pretty much squandered their playoff hopes and are under an interim manager going forward.
The Mariners on the other hand didn’t start the season with their traditional hot April. This time around they hovered around .500 early and then started to take a tailspin around mid-May. Currently on an 11-game homestand, the Mariners may be looking to get out of T-Mobile park and back on the road. During this lengthy homestand, which includes a day-night doubleheader on Saturday against the Angels due to the late season start, the Mariners are currently 2-4. And how the bats have been quiet. The Mariners during the first 6 games of this home stand have been shutout twice and only scored 17 runs.
Cold bats? I’ll raise you one. The Angels are coming into this series desperately trying to get out of Dodger Stadium. In the short two game series, the Angels lost both contests and only scored one run. That lonely run was a run last night created in which Shohei Ohtani (tonight’s starter) had to break up Tyler Anderson’s no-hitter in the 9th inning with a triple. The Angels overall have lost 11 straight road games and have scored a total of two runs in the last three games.
When looking ahead at this line, I saw some books had the over/under at 7.5 runs. Many jumped on it early and pushed it down to 7. When seeing an over/under like that you expect multiple aces on the mound. This isn’t meant to throw shade at the Mariners starter tonight in George Kirby, but actually a compliment in a way. Kirby had a couple starts in late May in which he struck out 8 and 9 hitters respectively against the A’s and Orioles. The last few starts in which Kirby has pitched, the Mariners are 3-0 in those three starts. Kirby pitches to contact and it shows with his 8.75 strikeout to walk ratio. For his season total, Kirby has just a grand total of 4 walks in 7 starts.
In looking for the right price for this under, I am seeing 7 across all books. Some are even offering plus odds and I’ll take it. DraftKings currently is at +105 and that provides great value on this pick considering Ohtani is on the mound and facing Kirby who pitches to contact and facing an Angels team that leads the league in strikeouts. Maybe the bats pick up after a few games in this lengthy five game series, but right now I’m taking the low under total at 7 for plus odds.