Billy J’s Friday MLB Pick – New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Our in-house MLB expert, Billy J (+11.91 Units), gives his best bet for today!

What better way to end a work week than to watch one of the best rivalries in sports on a Friday night? The Yankees and Red Sox are back at it for a weekend series and the Yankees have the upper hand thus far winning six of the first ten games of the year. The Yankees as expected have come with power and have hit 19 home runs versus the Red Sox this season and have a .279 team batting average. These two teams last met before the All-Star Break and that is where the Yankees bats were relentless. In the final two games of that set, the Yankees mashed six home runs and scored 27 runs. They will be looking to bring that firepower back to Fenway tonight.

Coming into this series the Yankees are in a bit of a slump as they have lost eight of their last ten and lost back-to-back games in Seattle before having an off day yesterday. The Red Sox on the other hand aren’t coming into this series that hot either. Before winning last night 4-3 against the Orioles, the Red Sox were riding a four-game losing streak. The Red Sox have absolutely struggled against division opponents as they are 13-29 against their American East rivals whereas the Yankees are 32-16.

Making his fifth start of the year and pitching tonight for the Yankees will be Domingo German (1-2, 5.09 ERA). German has only pitched 17 2/3 innings so far this season and his ERA is a bit ballooned as his first start of the season on July 21 he was tagged for five earned runs against the Astros. In his last start, German got the hard luck loss after pitching five solid innings and only giving up one earned run. German has not faced the Red Sox this season but pitched very efficiently in his four appearances last season. In those appearances, German was 0-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 16 strikeouts.

Starting for the Red Sox will be right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 4.23 ERA). With so many injuries to the Red Sox starting pitching staff, Eovaldi has been a mainstay with his 17 starts this season. His home splits are a bit concerning as he has a 6.81 ERA and a .320 batting average against. His July ERA has inflated his overall ERA as he had an 11.08 ERA in his three July starts. Eovaldi hasn’t pitched at home since July 27, but in his last two starts at Fenway he has surrendered 13 earned runs and given up 17 hits.  

When looking at the market for prices on this game, it still comes as a shock to see the Yankees as just a slight favorite money line. It’s well documented the Yankees are struggling and their 3-7 ATS along with their 2-8 record in the last ten games clearly reflect that. The Yankees are also taking a beating on social media as they are being mocked for going 1-7 since trading Joey Gallo. Almost 80 percent of the bets currently are on the Yankees money line and that could lead to this line growing as we get closer to first pitch.

It’s no secret the Yankees are the better team. In a 162-game season even the great teams will go into a slump. Eovaldi in his two starts against the Yankees has a 5.79 ERA and although he has been much needed for the Red Sox in terms of durability, Eovaldi’s recent starts combined with facing a Yankees lineup just ready to break out of a slump could be a recipe for disaster. German is not going to go deep in the game, but the Yankees bullpen is much more efficient and more well rested. That could be the key to the game if it goes to the late innings with the Red Sox bullpen being a bit taxed; especially from the Braves series.

The Pick: Yankees -115 to win 2 Units on Caesars Sportsbook

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