Billy J’s Monday MLB Pick – San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Our in-house MLB expert, Billy J (+0.83 units), gives his best bet for today!

The rivalry continues for another series post All-Star break with the Giants hosting the Dodgers this time around. It has been an interesting season series thus far as the home team has won all nine matchups. In the first half of the season, the Dodgers swept the mini two-game set at home and the favor was returned by the Giants at Oracle Park for the three-game set in June. When the second half of the season resumed, the Dodgers showed no mercy in a four-game home sweep. Can the Giants continue the 2022 trend in that the home team wins each game? Let’s find out. 

For starters we are light years from where we were this time last year. The Giants were trying to maintain their National League West lead from their arch nemesis. The Giants eventually did so and in dramatic fashion by winning the last game of the regular season. The two teams then squared off in the National League Division Series where the Dodgers ultimately won the series in five games. Where the Giants were last year and how close they were towards getting to the World Series relied heavily on the right arm of today’s starter in Logan Webb (9-4, 2.91 ERA). 

Webb was absolutely brilliant in his two home starts against the Dodgers in the postseason series. He had 14 2/3 innings, nine total hits, one total earned run, and capped it off with just one walk and 17 strikeouts. Webb has faced the Dodgers just once this year and coming off a no-decision in which the team lost 5-1 on July 22. It was a quality start in that Webb went six innings while allowing just one earned. The surprising part about that start was Webb issued four walks and only struck out two Dodgers batters. Could that be an indicator for tonight’s matchup as the Dodgers hitters didn’t appear too uncomfortable at the plate in that last matchup? 

The Giants certainly hope not as their ace is 7-2 at home this season with a 2.43 ERA. Only one batter has taken him deep in his 11 games started at home. Opposing Webb will be Dodgers southpaw Andrew Heaney (1-0, 0.47 ERA). Since being on the injured list in late June, Heaney returned last week against the Washington Nationals. As it was his first start back, he only went four innings and threw 71 total pitches. The Dodgers will look to ramp up his pitch count in the upcoming starts to get Heaney reacclimated to go deeper into games with each start. 

Backing Heaney on the offensive side will be a Dodgers lineup that is just clicking right now. In the four-game road weekend series against the Colorado Rockies, the Dodgers won three of four and scored 28 runs total. Since the second half of the season resumed, the Dodgers are 8-3. They took care of business against the Giants already and have some familiarity facing Webb in recent weeks. Heaney isn’t moving the needle much on the pitching side for the Dodgers, but there are a few Giants on the injured list and that includes third baseman Evan Longoria, shortstop Brandon Crawford and all-star starting outfielder Joc Pederson.  

After losing seven straight to start the second half of the season, the Giants now have a bit of an injury bug and will have to face a freight train in the Dodgers. It would be unique for all ten games of the series to be won by the home team, but I don’t see that happening here. The Giants will be trotting out a patchy lineup and Webb will have his hands full yet again. To get the Dodgers at this value even when facing a pitcher of Webb’s caliber is still good value in my book. I will grab the Dodgers here to reverse the trend of the home team winning each game this year. 

The Pick: Dodgers -140 on Caesars SportsBook for 1 Unit

Leave a comment