Billy J’s Wednesday MLB Pick – Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers

Our in-house MLB expert, Billy J (+9.81 units), gives his best bet for today!

We continue to roll through August and will look to focus on a midweek day game in Milwaukee. It will be the second game of a two-game set where the Brewers took game one last night 5-3. It was a much needed win for the Brew Crew who have lost six of their last seven games heading into last night’s contest and still trail the Cardinals by one game in the National League Central.

So far this season the Brewers are 3-0 in this interleague season matchup. What is even crazier is that the Brewers have won each game in this interleague season series by the exact score of 5-3. Will they sweep the season series? Can they win all games by the exact score of 5-3? The latter is a tad bit too much to ask, but could it happen again?

In the Brewers quest for a season sweep, they will turn to starter and co-ace of the staff in Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.49 ERA). Woodruff is coming off a no-decision in his last start against the Pirates and will be making his second start against the Rays this season. In the first matchup against the Rays in late June, Woodruff got the winning decision and had his highest strikeout total in any start this season. His 10 strikeouts were part of an impressive stat line that included five innings, two hits, one earned and no walks. It is from that start where we started to see Woodruff’s ERA start to incrementally make its way down.

Starting today for the Rays and looking to earn the first team win against the Brewers this season is left-hander Jeffrey Springs (4-3, 2.50 ERA). Springs did not face the Brewers the first go around and is looking to win back-to-back starts. In his last start, Springs threw six shutout innings in a road victory against the Tigers and struck out six. Springs has a 3-1 road record this year with an ERA of 2.68 and also is 2-0 in day games this year as a starter with a 2.22 ERA.

The Brewers opening money line started at -150 and has already moved to -160. Bettors have already started to make their move on the Brewers who are 28-22 at home and facing off against a Rays team who is 25-30 on the road. The Rays can be a sneaky underdog in this matchup and have great value as underdogs on the money line at +135. What sticks out to me here in this matchup is the run line with the Rays as they are getting -160. This indicates to me that we may be looking at another close matchup. Who knows, maybe this one ends up 5-3 as the final score again as well.

Joking aside on the final score, this one should be a low scoring contest with two quality starters on the bump today. Woodruff has already faced the Rays and pitched well in his start earlier this year. Springs on the other side is pitching against a Brewers team who has a .222 team average against lefties with a slugging percentage of .357. What I’m looking at here is actually the over/under, which sits now at 7.5 runs. It is currently as low as -118 and -125 in some books. There is potential where this one can get down to 7 runs as the day progresses.

Since this game starts this early afternoon and bettors will be looking to get some early action in, I want to get in on the full game under before I potentially lose that half run of cushion. I like both starters to be very efficient today and continue the trend of full game unders in this season’s series.

The Pick: Under 7.5 runs for 1 Unit -118 on BetRivers 

Leave a comment