After a Week 1 that was good (but not great), New Jersey based football guru JG is giving you a peek inside his mind on some early Week 2 leans… before the lines start to move!
Kansas City -3.5 (-110) vs LA Chargers
The Chargers are going to be a payoff team this year, and Justin Herbert is one of the NFL’s biggest ascending stars, but he’s not Patrick Mahomes yet, and that will be the difference in this one. Everyone and their brother knows that it’s not a good idea to blitz Mahomes, and while the Cardinals didn’t really have a choice, given how inept their front four is, the Chargers have the luxury of pairing a revitalized Khalil Mack (3 sacks week 1) with Joey Bosa – at the same time, though, the Chiefs offensive line is much better than the Raiders, and home field advantage will be big here. If Keenan Allen is ruled out for week 2, after suffering a hamstring injury in the first first half and missing the remainder of the game against Las Vegas, I think this spread jumps by at least a point.
After using the draft the Dolphins traded them for Tyreek Hill, Andy Reid further revamped the Chiefs defense this offseason, and absolutely dismantled Arizona on the road this weekend. I’m excited to watch the chess match between stud Chargers safety Derwin James and Mahomes, but I’m taking Mahomes all day, every day. After bucking the new NFL trend and actually playing their starters during the preseason, the Chiefs already look to be in midseason form, and I would be shocked to see Kansas City not cover this number. I’m also strongly contemplating placing a unit on the over as well (depending on Allen’s status).
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles over 50.5 (-110)
This line has already jumped up a point since I grabbed it at 49.5 earlier today, but I still like it at 50.5, and think it will continue to creep up further between now and kickoff. The Vikings new pass happy attack, featuring my #1 fantasy WR for 2022 Justin Jefferson, got off to a hot start against the Packers, before taking their foot off the gas after Green Bay failed to keep up (or do much of anything right on offense), electing to wind the clock on the ground. This won’t be the case against an explosive Eagles offense, and I think this game winds up in the 28-24 range.
While the Eagles offense looks like it’s going to be a problem for opponents all season, their defense had a hard time stopping the Lions ground game week 1, and I expect more of the same from Dalvin Cook & company week 2. The Vikings on the other hand didn’t exactly do anything to wow me on defense, besides for playing a Packers team missing both of their starting tackles, and a college roster at wide receiver.
LA Rams -10 (-110) vs Atlanta Falcons
This spread is already bigger than I’m normally comfortable with, but I believe it will continue to grow prior to kickoff, so I wanted to grab it now. After getting their doors blown off in Thursday night’s opener against the Bills, I think we see a much different, motivated Rams team in week 2 against the Falcons. After blowing a 16 point fourth quarter lead to the Saints, you’d expect the Falcons to have a chip on their shoulder, but I’m not sure the team picked to finish amongst the worst teams in the NFL this season has another gear.
Detroit Lions -2.5 (-110) vs Washington Commanders
If there’s one thing we all know about Dan Campbell’s Lions team, it’s that they are going to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. This unfortunately bit me in the derrière week 1 against the Eagles, who I had at -5.5, and felt great about for basically the whole game, but that’s the NFL for you. After giving up 6.8 rushing ypc to the Jags (why did Etienne only get 4 carries again?!?!), I expect the Lions to control this game on the ground and limit possessions for the Commanders.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; Carson Wentz is a pyramid scheme. While he got lucky and took advantage of some one-on-one coverages against the Jags, I’m always willing to bet on him making the costly mistake that will swing a game.