Jacksonville Jaguars Recap
One of the worst bets in all of football last season was the Jaguars. In 2022, can Trevor Lawrence and a revamped Jacksonville team be able to turn the tide? After Urban Meyer left the building with the Jags having covered fewer than 30% of their games and going 3-14 straight up, Doug Pederson entered. In a deliberate effort to upgrade the receiving group, the front management signed Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in free agency. With around a month before the start of the season, there are plenty of markets available to wager on, including the Super Bowl, the AFC South, win totals, and more. Whether you’re jumping on the bandwagon — Trevor Lawrence MVP, you heard it here first — or fading Jacksonville into oblivion.
The only teams with lengthier Super Bowl odds than the Jaguars are the Texans, Falcons, Jets, and Seahawks, who have a consensus price of +12500 and a top of +13000 to win it all. The Titans (+165) are listed as the favorite to win the AFC South, while the Colts are the betting favorite. Even if they are far behind Indianapolis and Tennessee in the standings (+700), the Jaguars are at least on the same planet as them.
Future picks (Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook):
- 6.5 wins: +115
- Trevor Lawrence Over 3,900.5 passing yards: -115
Tennessee Titans Recap
Last year, Tennessee had every advantage going into the playoffs: the top seed, Derrick Henry returning from injury, and A.J. Brown and Julio Jones ready to play.
In the divisional round game against the Bengals, Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions, the final of which set up Cincinnati’s game-winning field goal. Despite Joe Burrow being sacked nine times, the Titans still lost at home!
Let’s examine the best over/under wager for a Titans hoping to defy the odds and win the AFC South for a third consecutive year.
It’s interesting that the odds are so heavily skewed against the under for a team that has gone 23-10 over the previous two years while winning the division each time. Obviously, bookmakers think the Titans will have difficulty replicating their successful regular season from the previous season without Brown. The Titans’ situation is also not helped by their demanding schedule.
Early betting has Tennessee as underdogs in five games and in four pick’em games, which illustrates why the oddsmakers believe Tennessee will likely finish 9-8 or worse.
Starting with the divisional contests Tennessee finished the previous season 5-1, with the lone setback coming to the Texans in stunning fashion at home. If we forecast 5-1 in the division, the Titans just need to win one of three games against the Chargers, Eagles, and Cowboys. The Titans would need to win two out of three games against the Chargers, Eagles, and Cowboys if they finish 4-2 in the division. Along with victories over the Commanders and the Giants, these results include victories in at least two of the three home contests versus the Bengals, Broncos, and Raiders. These situations all seem plausible. Take the option with higher odds.
Future bet (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook):
- Titans O 9.5 wins: +120
Indianapolis Colts Recap
After losing their last regular-season game to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts were unable to make the playoffs the previous year. But the Colts have come together and have hired experienced quarterback Matt Ryan to guide them this year.
The Colts’ futures odds have increased as a result of Ryan’s relocation to Indianapolis, and sports bettors at Caesars Sportsbook have made them the most heavily-bet club in the NFL Division futures betting market and the most popular wager to end the season with the greatest record.
In the AFC South, Indianapolis had the second-best opening odds at +145, trailing only the Tennessee Titans at -120. The Colts have replaced the Titans as the favorite in the division after acquiring quarterback Matt Ryan, and as of the most recent Caesars Sportsbook odds board, Indianapolis is now listed at -120 odds with Tennessee dropping back to +160. The only other team now in first place in its division is the Baltimore Ravens, who did not start as the overwhelming favorite.
The Colts have the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL going into the 2022 year; its opponents had a combined 2021 record of 135-153-1, good for a winning percentage of.469. The third-most disproportionate OVER win total wager is made in Indianapolis for this reason, with 92.9 percent of the tickets and 95.8 percent of the betting handle placed on the OVER 9.5 wins. It is unclear if they will surpass the required number of wins.
Future bets (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook):
- Colts O 9.5 wins: -135
- Colts to win the division: -120
Houston Texans Recap
The Houston Texans’ win total for the 2022 season is set at 4.5. Although it would initially seem as though oddsmakers are projecting a somewhat improved team, a closer examination will reveal that’s not exactly the case.
The Texans and Atlanta Falcons each have 4.5 win totals, which is the fewest in the NFL. The only teams with a win total of 5.5 are the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets. According to projections, every other team in the NFL will have at least two more victories than the Texans. The bulk of gamblers are backing the under in Houston, with 62% of the betting action coming in on under 4.5 wins.
The Texans are presently +250 to have the fewest victories of any team at the end of the regular season. They are therefore marginally ahead of Atlanta at +350 in the betting odds.
The Texans are tied with Atlanta for the longest odds of any team to win the AFC South, at odds of 25 to 1. They are -500 favorites to win the division’s bottom spot. Bear in mind that Jacksonville plays in this division and has ended with the poorest record in football for the past two seasons. Despite this, the probabilities indicate that Houston comes in last place more than 83 percent of the time.
For the next season, 98 NFL players have odds placed on their behalf to earn NFL MVP. There isn’t a single Houston Texan among them. That only emphasizes the caliber of talent we’re working with.
Texans Future bets (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook):
- Texans U 4.5 wins: -120
- Texans to have the worst regular season record: +250