Giving our Best Future Bets: AFC West

The Kansas City Chiefs

Caesars’ Odds

Super Bowl Winner: Chiefs: +1100

Conference Winner: Chiefs: +600

Division Winner: Chiefs: +175

To Make the Playoffs:

Chiefs: Yes -240; No +196

Regulars Season Win Total:

Chiefs: O 10.5 -140; U 10.5 +120

The Kansas City Chiefs were set to succeed the New England Patriots as the next dynasty when Patrick Mahomes made his debut in 2018.

However, despite the Chiefs’ success, it hasn’t come close to matching what we saw with the Patriots at their best. The fact that Kansas City has been in the AFC championship game each of the last four years is merited. The Chiefs have only won one Super Bowl as a result of their efforts, though.

I believe it’s fair to say that teams around the league have done well to close the gap, even if there’s no denying that the Chiefs set the standard higher. Being without Tyreek Hill, one of the league’s most exciting players, might be Kansas City’s toughest problem this season.

As we develop a strategy for how to approach them in the futures market, we’ll draw attention to any other significant roster changes.

Andy Reid, the head coach of the Chiefs, is the best at preparing his teams for the current regular season. Since taking over as Kansas City’s head coach in 2013, the Chiefs have had the greatest record (27-9) through the first four games of the season. He plays his best players throughout the preseason, which I believe is the key to his success. Given that they will be without four of their top six pass catchers from last season, the Chiefs have a lot riding on this next season.

Therefore, it was crucial for Mahomes and his receiving group to get along with one another. Mahomes participated in the first two preseason contests and already has signs of being in midseason shape.

Even though I am aware of how strong the AFC West is, I believe the Chiefs are the only team that should be given the chance to surpass their victory total. This year’s AFC West teams should play a lot of close games that are decided in the fourth quarter. It’s important to note that the Chiefs have never finished the regular season with fewer than 12 victories during the Mahomes-Reid era. In 2022, I predict that tendency to persist.

Chiefs Future bets (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook

  • Chiefs O 10.5 wins: -140
  • Travis Kelce Over 1,100.5 Receiving Yards: -115

The Los Angeles Chargers  

Caesars’ Odds

Super Bowl Winner: Chargers: +1400

Conference Winner: Chargers: +800

Division Winner: Chargers: +220

To Make the Playoffs:

Chargers: Yes -170; No +143

Regulars Season Win Total:

Chargers: O 10 -150; U 10 +130

The Los Angeles Chargers’ high-powered offense fell short with a playoff place on the line in the last regular-season game against the Raiders, leaving them with an offseason full of “what-ifs”. Due to a Brandon Staley timeout on third and four with the Raiders on the 39-yard line and 38 seconds remaining in regulation, Los Angeles was defeated 35-32 on the game’s last play. One running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers made up the 11-player Raiders lineup. However, Staley needed additional size up front, so he brought in tackle Linval Joseph in favor of linebacker Kenneth Murray. However, there was now just one linebacker on the field for the Chargers, who was in charge of covering the center and filling any gaps that could open up. As a result of Staley’s decision, the Chargers were unable to prevent the Raiders from kicking a long field goal, which they may have chosen not to do given that a tie would have qualified both teams for the playoffs.  Stanaley will look for any opportunity for atonement in his second season as coach given the heartbreak of how their season transpired.

Although the Chargers are certainly a team on the rise and have one of the greatest win totals (10 wins), I still have a lot of doubts about the head coach. For instance, Staley’s success as the Rams’ defensive coordinator helped him to become one of the league’s most sought-after coaches.

The Chargers’ defense, which ranked 20th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA measure the year before but ended 26th after his first season, deteriorated under Staley’s direction.

Please excuse me if I exercise a little caution here; the head coaches of the Chargers have a habit of making mistakes at the worst possible time. There will probably be a lot of coin-flip games because Los Angeles will play in the league’s strongest division. I simply find it difficult to trust Staley to win more close games than he loses based on what I witnessed last season.

Future bets (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook):

  • Chargers U 10 wins: +130
  • Justin Herbet Over 4,625.5 Passing Yards: -115

The Las Vegas Raiders

Super Bowl Winner: Raiders: +3000

Conference Winner: Raiders: +1600

Division Winner: Raiders: +600

To Make the Playoffs:

Raiders: Yes +175; No -210

Regulars Season Win Total:

Raiders: O 8.5 -130; U 8.5 +110

The Las Vegas Raiders advanced last season and were one of the more unexpected playoff teams. The Raiders think they are on the verge of winning their division in 2022 after spending a ton of money on upgrades at wide receiver and pass rusher. However, are they prepared to make that step? They needed only two more components to compete in the Super Bowl, right? If such is the case, it is unclear. The Raiders’ pass defense was below average, while their run defense was among the worst in the NFL last season. Chandler Jones’ signing undoubtedly helps, but can Rock Ya-Sin, Pro Football Focus’ 29th-ranked cornerback, replace Casey Heyward Jr., PFF’s 12th-ranked cornerback, in pass coverage? They are ranked 21st by Football Outsiders in DVOA, a statistic that measures each team’s success on each play relative to the league average baseline. The Raiders appear to be a group ready to chuck the ball and go after the passer. But did they fill in other voids sufficiently throughout the offseason to compete in the NFL’s toughest division?

The Raiders’ victory total of 8.5 first seemed insultingly low. However, Sean Koerner of the Action Network predicts that the Raiders’ schedule will be the second-most challenging in the NFL.

It may be difficult to predict spreads during the preseason, but it is safe to anticipate that the Raiders will only be favored by at least one score or more in three games this year (Texans, Jaguars, and Seahawks).

There will also be a lot of toss-ups. Games versus the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Patriots, Steelers, and Saints are included in that. If they win half of them, they will have won six games so far.

That leaves six extremely challenging divisional contests (against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos) plus two more challenging contests (against the Rams in Week 14 and the 49ers in Week 17).

In their eight toughest games of the season, they may actually go 3-5, which would still result in an Over provided all goes according to plan.

There is a wager available at Caesars Sportsbook on “wins in the division.” There is consensus that the six division games will be difficult given the Raiders’ line, which is set at 2.5 (-115 both ways).

Their 10-7 record from the previous season was supported by a 4-0 mark in overtime contests. The Raiders would not have advanced to the playoffs if those tight games had not gone exactly as planned.

Future bets (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook):

  • Raiders U 8.5 wins: +110
  • Maxx Crosby Defensive Player of the Year: +4000

The Denver Broncos 

Caesars’ Odds

Super Bowl Winner: Broncos: +1600

Conference Winner: Broncos: +900

Division Winner: Broncos: +275

To Make the Playoffs:

Broncos: Yes -155; No +130

Regulars Season Win Total:

Broncos: O 10 +110; U 10 -130

Since Peyton Manning galloped off into the sunset, the Broncos have used 15 different quarterbacks, but Russell Wilson is the team’s first franchise quarterback. On March 8, Wilson decided to forego his no-trade clause, and the league reacted strongly to the news.

As evidence, Denver had to part ways with TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, QB Drew Lock, two first-round selections, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick in order to get Wilson. Teams have demonstrated a greater willingness to trade draft selections in recent years in order to acquire a proven commodity. When they sought Matthew Stafford, who delivered with a Super Bowl victory, the Rams carried out this approach flawlessly. Fans of the Broncos can only hope that Wilson can achieve a like outcome this year. If so, everything the team sacrificed to lure Wilson to Denver will have been worthwhile.

This win total has generated some curiosity. The victory total has been reduced to 10, with the over at +110. Depending on whose side you’re on when it comes to victory totals, a difference in one game might be crucial. According to my predictions for the AFC West, it will be difficult for any team to establish much of a lead inside the division. It’s difficult to place any team above the Chiefs since, unless shown otherwise, they remain king of the hill. This statistic, in my opinion, is accurate since, if Wilson is expected to elevate Denver beyond the.500 mark, we should anticipate nine to ten victories. This Broncos team does, in my opinion, have more potential than risk. Since many of these AFC West games will be decided in the fourth quarter, having Wilson at quarterback gives Denver a significant advantage. Wilson has a history of winning games in the final minutes.

The Broncos are expected to win nine or ten games this season, making this victory total one of the closest on the board.

Future bets (Odds provided by Caesers Sportsbook):

  • Broncos O 10 wins: +110
  • Broncos to Make the Playoffs: Yes -155

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